In the midst of intense political turmoil, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finds himself at a crossroads. The possibility of a government shutdown looms, and McCarthy is faced with a difficult decision that could have far-reaching consequences for his career and the future of the Republican Party.
NBC News points out that McCarthy has two options: either strike a deal with Democrats to keep the government open and risk alienating the far-right faction of his party, or allow the government to shut down and potentially save his job.[0] McCarthy is in a precarious position, with one House Republican stating that he has a “career-altering decision to make.” [0]
The Washington Post editorializes that McCarthy will need Democratic support to keep the government open or to reopen it after a shutdown.[1] Bipartisan agreement is necessary in passing a bill to fund the government, and moderate lawmakers represent a broader swath of the country than the ultra-partisans. McCarthy, however, is wary of empowering these moderates, as it could lead to his ousting by the resisters within his own party. Despite the challenges, getting a deal done with Democratic votes would allow McCarthy to win over the public by prioritizing the nation's interests.
Some observers believe that the hard-liners within the Republican Party are aiming to remove McCarthy from his position as Speaker, regardless of his actions. Rep. Matt Gaetz, a prominent figure among the far-right faction, has threatened to bring a motion to vacate against McCarthy.[2] Gaetz claims that McCarthy has failed to meet the demands set forth in the agreement that secured him the Speaker's gavel.[3] The ongoing House Ethics Committee's investigation into Gaetz may provide an opportunity for the party to act against him.[4]
Gaetz's threat to oust McCarthy intensifies as budget negotiations heat up, with Gaetz accusing McCarthy of being “out of compliance” with the agreement.[3] Gaetz is part of a coalition of far-right House members who plan to vote against a McCarthy-backed continuing resolution that would temporarily fund the government.[3] Gaetz's efforts to unseat McCarthy demonstrate his determination, as he even courted House Democrats to secure their support in removing McCarthy from the Speakership.
The potential showdown between McCarthy and his Republican opponents could lead to a motion to vacate, triggering a vote to determine whether McCarthy can retain his position as House Speaker.[5] If McCarthy fails to maintain the support of a majority of representatives, he would lose his gavel.[5]
This attempt to replace McCarthy with one of his top deputies, Rep. Tom Emmer, is indicative of the acrimony and chaos within the Republican conference.[6] Emmer is seen as more attuned to the concerns of the far-right faction and is believed to deliver more conservative results.[7]
The fate of McCarthy ultimately lies in the hands of Democrats, as a motion to vacate requires the support of a majority of the House.[6] Democrats have not yet decided whether they will protect McCarthy's speakership or distance themselves from him.[6]
On the Senate side, lawmakers are working on a bipartisan stopgap funding measure, with efforts to add a border security package as an amendment. The Senate bill has garnered support from Senate Republican leaders, but Sen. Ted Cruz opposes it.[8]
While the Senate bill has not yet passed, a bipartisan stopgap spending package has received yea votes from a significant majority of senators in procedural votes. The bill is likely to pass after the shutdown deadline, providing temporary funding until mid-November.[9]
The House is waiting for the outcome of the Senate's actions, with the possibility of adding border security measures to the continuing resolution.[10] McCarthy, however, has not committed to bringing the bill up for a vote if it passes in the Senate.[10]
The potential ousting of McCarthy as Speaker and the looming government shutdown highlight the deep divisions within the Republican Party. The ongoing power struggle between factions threatens to destabilize Congress and hinder progress on important issues. McCarthy's fate hangs in the balance as he navigates the difficult decisions ahead.
0. “Kevin McCarthy may need Democrats to save his job” The Week, 28 Sep. 2023, https://theweek.com/politics/will-democrats-save-kevin-mccarthys-speakership
1. “Republicans blame immigration for shutdown, not internal battles” NPR, 27 Sep. 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/09/27/1202043498/government-shutdown-border-immigration
2. “Speaker Kevin McCarthy's job on the line as shutdown looms” BBC, 27 Sep. 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66928375
3. “Gaetz Claims McCarthy Paid Social Media Influencers To Bash Him Online—But McCarthy Denies It” Forbes, 28 Sep. 2023, https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/09/28/gaetz-claims-mccarthy-paid-social-media-influencers-to-bash-him-online-but-mccarthy-denies-it/
4. “Matt Gaetz Wants Democrats to Join in Ousting McCarthy” Advocate.com, 29 Sep. 2023, https://www.advocate.com/politics/matt-gaetz
5. “McCarthy’s GOP critics reportedly eye his possible successor” MSNBC, 29 Sep. 2023, https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/mccarthys-gop-critics-reportedly-eye-possible-successor-rcna118025
6. “Hardliners plot to replace Kevin McCarthy as government shutdown looms – The Washington Post” The Washington Post, 29 Sep. 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/28/kevin-mccarthy-tom-emmer-government-shutdown-motion-vacate/
7. “The Shutdown Is About the GOP's Dysfunctional Family Drama” New York Magazine, 29 Sep. 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/09/shutdown-republican-dysfunctional-family-drama.html
8. “4 Texas Republicans join ultraconservatives to sink GOP attempt to keep federal government open” The Texas Tribune, 29 Sep. 2023, https://www.texastribune.org/2023/09/29/texas-republicans-government-shutdown-vote/
9. “I can’t make you love me” Fox News, 30 Sep. 2023, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cant-make-love
10. “House fails to advance spending stopgap, pushing government to the brink of a shutdown” GovExec.com, 29 Sep. 2023, https://www.govexec.com/management/2023/09/house-fails-advance-spending-stopgap-pushing-government-brink-shutdown/390790
