In a surprising turn of events, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy finds himself facing the possibility of losing his position after just nine months.[0] McCarthy's decision to fold on the shutdown fight has angered hard-line Republicans, particularly Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, who has threatened to depose McCarthy if he worked with Democrats to fund the government. Gaetz has announced that he will try to oust McCarthy as speaker this week, but he faces a high bar to succeed as he needs the majority of the House to support the effort.[1] This puts Democrats in a difficult position as they must decide whether to let McCarthy get booted from his job or cut a deal to save him.[2]
Gaetz has been leading the charge against McCarthy's leadership since January, when he and a group of right-wing holdouts refused to vote for McCarthy until he made major concessions. This included restoring the ability of any one member of the House to call for McCarthy's removal. Now, McCarthy must navigate the challenge of retaining the support of both Democrats and more moderate Republicans if the motion to vacate moves forward.[3]
The outcome of this power struggle remains uncertain. It is possible that a handful of moderate Democrats may vote “present,” making it harder for McCarthy's critics to succeed. Alternatively, a group of institutionalist Democrats could also vote “present,” allowing Republicans to determine McCarthy's fate within their ranks. However, Democrats have made it clear that their support is not guaranteed and McCarthy would need to formally ask their caucus for help.[4] Moderate Democrats have stated that they would only vote present if McCarthy makes a direct request for help and pledges to make the House run in a more bipartisan fashion.
While Democrats have previously voted to avoid default and a shutdown, it is unclear whether they will be willing to save McCarthy's speakership.[5] None of them voted for McCarthy during the rounds it took for him to secure the position, and none voted “present” to help lower the threshold of Republican support he needed.[5] Gaetz's motion to vacate is seen as a direct response to McCarthy's decision to pass a funding bill that did not meet Gaetz's demands for spending cuts.
McCarthy has expressed confidence in surviving the challenge, stating that this is a personal fight for Gaetz. He believes that Gaetz is upset because he prevented a government shutdown from happening. McCarthy has also stated that Gaetz is more interested in securing TV interviews than doing something substantial.[6]
The battle for the speakership is not just a Republican affair. The fate of McCarthy also lies in the hands of House Democrats. A simple thumbs up or thumbs down from Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries could determine McCarthy's fate.[7] If Democrats decide not to save McCarthy, Gaetz would only need four other Republicans, along with the Democrats, to take down the Speaker.
The upcoming drama raises two important questions.[7] Firstly, how many Republicans will Gaetz be able to rally to his cause?[7] It should be relatively easy for Gaetz to gather a hardcore group of Republicans who are willing to put McCarthy's gavel at risk.[7] However, the more support Gaetz attracts, the weaker McCarthy looks.[7] Joining Gaetz is not without risk for other Republicans, as McCarthy wields power as Speaker and has connections to outside political action committees that could get involved in primary elections.[7]
The second question is how Democrats will respond.[7] While some Democrats, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have expressed support for ousting McCarthy, it is unclear how many will actually vote against him.[6] Democrats have deep distrust for McCarthy, and his last-minute decision to pass a funding bill that punts on Ukraine aid has turned them off.[2] Nevertheless, McCarthy would need the help of Democrats if Gaetz's motion to vacate is to succeed.
The outcome of this power struggle will have significant implications for the future of the House of Representatives. It remains to be seen whether McCarthy will be able to retain his position or if Gaetz's efforts will be successful in removing him from leadership. Regardless of the outcome, this battle over the speakership has diverted attention from important issues such as passing a long-term funding deal and negotiating the future of aid to Ukraine.[3]
0. “Kevin McCarthy Finally Defies the Right” The Atlantic, 30 Sep. 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/09/congress-government-shutdown-mccarthy-house/675512/
1. “McCarthy, Gaetz get into testy exchange over anti-Gaetz paid post” The Hill, 28 Sep. 2023, https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4228092-mccarthy-gaetz-get-into-testy-exchange-over-anti-gaetz-paid-post/
2. “Democrats weigh McCarthy’s fate as GOP moderates float rules changes to save speaker” CNN, 2 Oct. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/politics/democrats-kevin-mccarthy-speakership/index.html
3. “Congress just avoided a shutdown. Kevin McCarthy's fight is just beginning.” Vox.com, 1 Oct. 2023, https://www.vox.com/2023/10/1/23898555/kevinn-mccarthy-speakership-matt-gaetz
4. “Matt Gaetz says he’ll try to oust Kevin McCarthy as House speaker” The Washington Post, 1 Oct. 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/01/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-house-speaker
5. “Congress averts government shutdown. Will it cost Speaker Kevin McCarthy his gavel?” Sacramento Bee, 30 Sep. 2023, https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article279965109.html
6. “McCarthy Shrugs Off Gaetz’s Threat To Oust Him As House Speaker: ‘Bring It On’” Forbes, 1 Oct. 2023, https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/10/01/mccarthy-shrugs-off-gaetzs-threat-to-oust-him-as-house-speaker-bring-it-on
7. “Kevin McCarthy Traded Shutdown Crisis For a Leadership One” New York Magazine, 1 Oct. 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/kevin-mccarthy-traded-shutdown-crisis-for-a-leadership-one.html
